What does "theory of change" refer to in an evaluation framework?

The concept of "theory of change" in an evaluation framework is correctly identified as a comprehensive explanation of how and why a desired change is expected to happen. This approach goes beyond merely stating what the program intends to achieve; it delves into the underlying assumptions and mechanisms that link activities to outcomes.

A theory of change articulates the causal pathways and the reasoning that supports the anticipated change, detailing how various components of a program interact to lead to the desired results. This includes identifying the necessary conditions, the context in which the program operates, and the external factors that could influence the outcomes.

By providing such a thorough understanding, a theory of change can help stakeholders assess the logic of the program's design, clarify goals, and measure progress effectively. It serves as a foundational element for the evaluation process, guiding data collection and analysis to ensure that they align with the expected outcomes.

In contrast, other options like a simplified model of program design do not capture the depth of reasoning involved, while a detailed budget plan and a document outlining the evaluation timeline focus on formal logistical aspects rather than the understanding of how change occurs.